MATCH PREVIEW | KILMARNOCK (H)

DUNDEE UNITED V KILMARNOCK
CINCH PREMIERSHIP
7:45PM WEDNESDAY 24TH MAY
TANNADICE PARK

We host Kilmarnock for our final home match of the 2022/23 season, with a huge chance to loft ourselves off the foot of the cinch Premiership table.

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Lay of the Land

It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of Wednesday's clash.

A disappointing defeat at Rugby Park at the hands of St Johnstone on Matchday 36 has dragged Killie back into the mix for automatic relegation after they had developed a slight buffer.

A situation has now arisen where a victory for the hosts would lift them off the bottom of the table, albeit on goal difference, heading into the final day of the season.

On Sunday, Derek McInnes' side face Ross County as United simultaneously take on Motherwell in Lanarkshire, and the action in Ayrshire will no doubt have enormous permutations for the Terrors.

Before that though, United have a job to do on Wednesday as these sides meet for the sixth time this season.

Opponent Overview

Throughout the campaign, Killie's Achilles Heel has been blatantly obvious - their form on the road.

They have lost a staggering 83% of their 18 matches away from Rugby Park, picking up just five points from the outliers.

Inconsistency also has a part to play in the Ayrshire outfit's 2022/23 struggles, having failed to record back-to-back victories in the league. Furthermore, Kilmarnock haven't managed to score more than two goals in a single league match this season.

Despite these failings, McInnes' men have beaten all four teams in the mix for the final European spot - Heart of Midlothian, Hibernian, Aberdeen and St Mirren. They have taken maximum points on at least one occasion against every team in the division outwith the Old Firm.

Tale of the Tape

United and Kilmarnock have met in every domestic competition this season. From the five matchups, the Rugby Park side have claimed three victories.

On Matchday 1, an Ash Taylor volley in stoppage time cancelled out Dylan Levitt's first-half thunderbolt on the west coast.

A few weeks later, United were dumped out of the ViaPlay Cup at the Quarter Final stage as Kyle Lafferty and Daniel Armstrong struck for the hosts.

The reverse at Tannadice saw the Terrors run riot - 4-0 the final score in the City of Discovery with Kieran Freeman, Jamie McGrath, Glenn Middleton and Dylan Levitt writing their name on the scoresheet under the lights.

Watch the highlights from that encounter below!

Then, in February, Killie secured back-to-back 1-0 victories over United within the space of two weeks, with the latter seeing us exit the Scottish Cup at Tannadice after Kyle Vassell rose highest in the area to nod home the only goal of the game.

FACTS AND FIGURES

Kilmarnock have the worst goal difference in the cinch Premiership, having scored the fewest and conceded the second most. 

United have lost just one home league match to Wednesday's opposition in almost 15 years. 

Killie fall ten points short of their expected points stat - the biggest disparity in the division whilst United follow closely with eight.

???????????????????????????? Rounding off a team performance in typical Dylan Levitt style@DylanLevitt | #DUFC pic.twitter.com/qgfUGDzEd5

— Dundee United FC (@dundeeunitedfc) November 10, 2022

From midfield, Dylan Levitt has scored three goals in six appearances in this fixture.

They top the charts for fouls drawn - 454 in 36 matches.

Having taken six points from their last six games, Kilmarnock are on the joint worst run of form in the bottom six alongside Livingston.

The last match at Tannadice in which United failed to score was the Scottish Cup Fifth Round clash with Kilmarnock back in February.

No player in the top flight has won a higher percentage of his aerial duels than Killie defender Ash Taylor, who is successful in almost three-quarters of his contests.

From The Vault 

Yet to taste defeat on home soil in the 2014/15 season, United welcomed Kilmarnock to Tannadice on Matchday 14.

The Terrors showed no signs of rust following the international break, as Nadir Ciftci got the scoring underway with just six minutes on the clock. The eagle-eyed Stuart Armstrong spotted the Turkish frontman's darting run into the area, and Ciftci angled a fine finish into the far corner.

The visitors hit back through Manuel Pascali after some lackadaisical defending saw United fail to deal with the second ball after Rory McKenzie cracked the inside of the post. 

It would take just four minutes for our lead to be restored however, with the scintilating Armstrong combining nicely with Chris Erskine on the edge of the area before sending a fabulous strike beyond Craig Samson on the turn.

Robbie Muirhead, Charlie Telfer and Ciftci all went close to doubling United's advantage throughout an entertaining second half, before substitute Aidan Connolly netted from point-blank range at the culmination of a fast break to grab his first league goal for the club and wrap up the three points.

Watch the highlights below! 

Talking Tactics

Kilmarnock manager Derek McInnes has alternated between a 3-5-2 and 4-4-2 throughout the majority of the season.

On the road, he has used a three-man defence 40% of the time and in the previous two matches on the bounce, so it appears this is what United will face on Wednesday.

Of late, the former Aberdeen boss has opted for a two-man, physically imposing strike force of Christian Doidge and Kyle Vassell.

Killie's main threat comes from set pieces, with almost 40% of their goals this season coming from dead-ball scenarios (excluding penalties). 

No team in the Premiership have scored a higher percentage of their goals via headers, whilst they also boast the best crossing accuracy rate, therefore it appears United will have to be cautious when defending balls into their box. 

Unsurprisingly, most of the deliveries are concentrated down the right flank - Daniel Armstrong's usual wing.

On the turnover, Killie seem susceptible to sharp counter-attacks against an isolated back three, particularly in the wider regions when a singular man can be faced up one-versus-one.

Predicted XI: Walker, Dorsett, Wright, Mayo, Armstrong, Chambers, Donnelly, Power, McKenzie, Doidge, Vassell

One to Watch

Daniel Armstrong is ranked second only to Celtic star Jota when stacked up against fellow cinch Premiership wingers, according to Wyscout.

The 25-year-old has a staggering 20 goal contributions to his name in all competitions this season, enough to see him named the club's Player of the Season. In the bottom six, only Kevin van Veen of Motherwell has more. 48% of Kilmarnock's goals in the league have involved Armstrong one way or another.

His season is even more remarkable when the fact he was a peripheral figure for Killie during their Championship-winning campaign last year is taken into account, as he made just three appearances.

Armstrong's goals have been the difference in matches between United and Killie on two occasions this season, whilst he delivered the cross which was headed home by Vassell in the Scottish Cup Fifth Round meeting.

The mercurial wideman has attempted more one-versus-one dribbles than any other player in the top flight, whilst also sitting third for total crosses - a whopping 171. Only Rangers duo James Tavernier and Borna Barisic have made more deliveries into the area.

We can expect to see Armstrong deployed on the right of a midfield five at Tannadice.

Officials

Referee: Alan Muir

Assistant Referee: David Roome

Assistant Referee: Graham McNeillie

Fourth Official: Barry Cook

VAR: Steven McLean

Assistant VAR: Calum Spence